[1]吴甜甜,陈煜,段忠东.基于阻滞增长模型的台风强度演变模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2022,31(05):037-46.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2022.0505]
 WU Tiantian,CHEN Yu,DUAN Zhongdong.Simulation of typhoon intensity evolution based on retardation growth model[J].,2022,31(05):037-46.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2022.0505]
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基于阻滞增长模型的台风强度演变模拟
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
31
期数:
2022年05期
页码:
037-46
栏目:
出版日期:
2022-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Simulation of typhoon intensity evolution based on retardation growth model
作者:
吴甜甜 陈煜 段忠东
哈尔滨工业大学(深圳)土木与环境工程学院, 广东 深圳 518055
Author(s):
WU Tiantian CHEN Yu DUAN Zhongdong
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology(Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China
关键词:
热带气旋台风危险性阻滞增长模型强度模型
Keywords:
tropical cyclonetyphoon hazardretardation growth modelintensity model
分类号:
TU14;X43
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2022.0505
摘要:
我国位于西北太平洋的西岸,是全球范围内受热带气旋影响最为严重的国家之一。从1963-2019年,热带气旋在我国造成的损失占自然灾害损失的50%甚至更多。可靠的台风危险性量化分析对政府部门制定防灾减灾规划、金融机构(如保险及再保险业)以及个人家庭都很重要。全路径随机台风模型可以合成出大量的台风从生成到消亡的路径和强度样本,可对大范围区域台风进行危险性分析,是评估台风危险性最有潜力的模型。其基本思想是先对路径分段模拟,再组合成完整的路径和强度。文中针对西北太平洋区域的台风活动建立了基于阻滞增长模型的热带气旋强度模型,模拟热带气旋在其生命周期内的强度演变。在模型中纳入海气环境因素的影响,并依据热带气旋强度增减状态以及强度等级将样本数据划分为10类,分别建立基于阻滞增长模型的强度模型。最后通过对比西北太平洋1979-2018年JTWC最佳路径数据和模型模拟结果,发现文中建立的模型模拟的强度与历史的平均强度较为吻合,但是对于强度的快速增强模拟效果不佳,这可能与样本数据不足有关。
Abstract:
Located on the west coast of the Northwest Pacific,China is one of the countries seriously affected by tropical cyclones(TC)in the world. From 1963 to 2019,TCs accounted for 50% or even more of the losses caused by natural disasters. Therefore,reliable quantitative analysis of typhoon hazard is essential for government to make disaster prevention and mitigation plans,and also is important for financial institutions(such as insurance and reinsurance industry)and even individual families. The full track synthetic TC model can be used to analyze risk of typhoon disaster by synthesizing a large number of typhoons from generation to extinction,and it is the most potential model to assess typhoon hazard,the basic idea of which is to simulate the track segments first,and then combine them into a complete track and intensity. In this paper,a TC intensity model based on retardation growth model is established to simulate the intensity evolution of TC during its life in the northwest Pacific. The sea-air environmental factors are incorporated into the model,and the sample data are classified into ten categories based on the intensity strengthening or weakening phases of tropical cyclones and intensity classes,and the intensity models based on the stagnant growth model are established separately. Finally,by comparing the JTWC best track records and the results of model simulation in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,it is found that the simulation intensity of the proposed model is consistent with the historical average intensity, but the simulation effect is not good for the rapid enhancement of intensity,which may be related to the lack of sample data.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-7-13;改回日期:2021-11-25。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51978223)
作者简介:吴甜甜(1996-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事台风灾害研究.E-mail:wutt0824@outlook.com
通讯作者:段忠东(1968-),男,教授,博士,主要从事风工程以及结构健康监测与安全评定研究.E-mail:duanzd@hit.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01