[1]黄森,崔素丽,辛鹏,等.天水市“7.25”群发性浅层滑坡降雨阈值及空间分布研究[J].自然灾害学报,2021,30(03):181-190.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2021.0320]
 HUANG Sen,CUI Suli,XIN Peng,et al.Study on rainfall threshold and spatial distribution of clustered shallow landslides in Tianshui City on July 25[J].,2021,30(03):181-190.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2021.0320]
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天水市“7.25”群发性浅层滑坡降雨阈值及空间分布研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
30
期数:
2021年03期
页码:
181-190
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-06-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on rainfall threshold and spatial distribution of clustered shallow landslides in Tianshui City on July 25
作者:
黄森1 崔素丽1 辛鹏2 王涛2 梁昌玉2
1. 大陆动力学国家重点实验室 西北大学地质学系, 陕西 西安 710069;
2. 中国地质科学院 地质力学研究所, 北京 100081
Author(s):
HUANG Sen1 CUI Suli1 XIN Peng2 WANG Tao2 LIANG Changyu2
1. State Key Laboratory of Continental Dynamics, Department of Geology, Northwest University, Xi’an 710069, China;
2. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
关键词:
群发滑坡降雨过程协同克里金插值斯皮尔曼等级相关降雨阈值空间分布
Keywords:
mass landslidesrainfall processCo-KrigingSpearman’s rank correlation coefficientrainfall thresholdspatial distribution
分类号:
P642.22;X4
DOI:
10.13577/j.jnd.2021.0320
摘要:
极端降雨的出现常伴随大规模区域地质灾害的发生,为了减少灾害造成的损失,对极端降雨引起的区域性滑坡进行预测就显得尤为重要,确定诱发群发滑坡的降雨阈值及空间分布是预测的关键。本文以2013年7月天水极端降雨灾害事件为例,以小时降雨数据为基础,基于协同克里金插值法和斯皮尔曼相关系数法,经统计分析得到不同降雨模式下引发群发滑坡的降雨阈值及空间分布规律。研究结果表明:①本次群发性浅层滑坡的形成主要是在前期四次强降雨的周期作用下形成的,四次降雨过程对滑坡空间分布的影响作用依次为首次降雨的准备工作,第二次降雨的决定作用,第三次降雨的推动作用及第四次降雨的成灾作用;②研究区群发性浅层滑坡的最小小时降雨、强降雨、累积降雨阈值分别为15 mm/h,、105 mm和250 mm;③滑坡主要集中发育在研究区中部区域,东南部次之,西北部最少,滑坡发育程度与降雨量大小呈正相关。研究所得群发滑坡降雨阈值及空间分布可为该地区的滑坡灾害监测预警及城镇规划提供参考依据。
Abstract:
The emergence of extreme rainfall is often accompanied by the occurrence of large-scale regional geological disasters.In order to reduce the losses caused by disasters,it is important to predict regional landslides caused by extreme rainfall.Determining the rainfall threshold and spatial distribution is the key for prediction. Taking the extreme rainfall disaster event in Tianshui in July 2013 as an example,based on hourly rainfall data,Co-Kriging and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient,this paper obtained the rainfall threshold and spatial distribution law of mass landslides triggered by different rainfall patterns through statistical analysis.Research indicates:Firstly, the formation of this mass shallow landslide was mainly formed under the cyclical action of the previous four heavy rainfalls.The effects of the four rainfall processes on the spatial distribution of the landslide are the preparation for the first rainfall, the decisive role of the second rainfall, the propelling role of the third rainfall, and the disaster-causing role of the fourth rainfall; Secondly, the minimum hourly, heavy and cumulative rainfall thresholds of clustered shallow landslides in the study area were respectively 15mm/h,105mm and 250mm;③Landslides are mainly concentrated in the central area of the study area, followed by the southeast, and the northwest the least.The degree of landslide development is positively correlated with rainfall.The rainfall threshold and spatial distribution of mass landslides obtained from the research can provide reference basis for landslide disaster monitoring, early warning and urban planning in this area.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-08-17;改回日期:2020-10-29。
基金项目:渭河中上游城镇灾害地质调查项目(DD20190717)
作者简介:黄森(1997-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事地质灾害评价研究.E-mail:316027783@qq.com
通讯作者:崔素丽(1980-),女,副教授,主要从事特殊土处理、地质灾害防治.E-mail:sulicui2014@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01