XU Xiaoming,ZHANG Xueqin.Changes in precipitation extremes in Shenzhen City from 1961 to 2019[J].,2021,30(03):043-51.[doi:10.13577/j.jnd.2021.0305]





Changes in precipitation extremes in Shenzhen City from 1961 to 2019
徐晓明12 张雪芹1
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室, 北京 100101;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
XU Xiaoming12 ZHANG Xueqin1
1. Key Lab of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049
indexes for precipitation extremesMann-Kendall testclimate changeShenzhen City
为掌握深圳市极端降水气候变化规律,基于深圳市1961-2019年日降水数据,计算了11个极端降水指数和变异系数等指标,检测了年降水量异常值,利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变分析等方法,分析了深圳市极端降水及降水异常年份变化规律。结果表明:近59年,深圳市极端降水指数波动特征显著;判定强降水和极强降水的日降水量阈值分别为59.7 mm和130.4 mm,大致对应着暴雨、大暴雨级别;极端降水变化主要表现为中雨日数(R10)显著增多;最大1日降水量(Rx 1day)、最大5日降水量(Rx5day)、中雨日数(R10)等3个极端降水指数均在1980年左右发生突变;1963年为降水典型异常偏低年份,2001年和2008年为降水典型异常偏高年份;近30年,年降水量异常年份出现频次显著增多,为前29年的2倍之多。上述结果均表明深圳市未来面临着城市内涝灾害的高风险。
This paper calculates 11 indexes for precipitation extremes and variation coefficients based on the daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2019 for Shenzhen City. Then we analyze the changes in precipitation extremes and abnormal precipitation years using the methods of linear regression and Mann-Kendall test. The results demonstrate that the indexes for precipitation extremes has fluctuated significantly over the past 59 years in Shenzhen City. The daily precipitation thresholds for determining very wet days’ precipitation and extremely wet days’ precipitation are 59.7mm and 130.4mm, respectively, roughly corresponding to the level of rainstorm and heavy rainstorm. The number of moderate rain days (R10) has increased remarkably, and R10, the maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) all have abrupt changes around the year 1980. The precipitation was typical abnormally low in 1963, while typical abnormally high in 2001 and 2008. In the recent three decades, the annual precipitation abnormalities occur twice comparing with that of the previous 29 years. The results mentioned above imply the high risk of urban waterlogging disasters in the future for Shenzhen City.


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