[1]周美琴,周涛,史培军.“深圳—巴颜浩特”地理样带气象灾害损失——自然与人文因素影响分析[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(01):062-68.
　ZHOU Mei-qin,ZHOU Tao,SHI Pei-jun.Meteorologic disaster losses in Shenzhen-Bayanhaote geographic transect：influence analysis of natural and human factors[J].,2008,17(01):062-68.
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“深圳—巴颜浩特”地理样带气象灾害损失——自然与人文因素影响分析
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
17
期数:
2008年01期
页码:
062-68
栏目:
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Meteorologic disaster losses in Shenzhen-Bayanhaote geographic transect：influence analysis of natural and human factors
作者:
周美琴2;  周涛1; 2;  史培军1; 2; 3
1. 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学), 北京 100875;
2. 北京师范大学 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京 100875;
3. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 100875
Author(s):
ZHOU Mei-qin2;  ZHOU Tao1; 2;  SHI Pei-jun1; 2; 3
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology(Beijing Normal University), Beijing 100875, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100875, China
关键词:
深圳—巴彦浩特样带; 气象灾害; 灾次; 持续时间; 人文因素; 变异系数; 统计分析
Keywords:
Shenzhen-Bayanhaote transect; meteorologic disasters; disaster frequency; duration; human factors; coefficient of variation; statistics
分类号:
P426.616
摘要:
在建立"深圳—巴彦浩特"地理样带数据库的基础上,运用Pearson相关方法分析了样带温度和降水的变化对灾情的影响,并探讨了人文因素对旱灾灾情的影响。为了分析不同的自然与人文因素空间组合特征对灾情的影响,通过选取具有代表性的自然与人文因素指标,运用层次聚类方法对样带137个县进行了分析。结果表明:样带的气象灾害以水旱灾害为主,在样带上呈现出明显的区域差异,表现为北方以旱灾为主,南方以水灾为主;降水变异和温度变异是影响气象灾害灾次与持续时间的关键性指标,它们之间具有明显的相关性;人类活动对旱灾的影响明显,其灾次和持续时间与农业产值的比重(一产GDP/总GDP)呈显著的正相关;进一步研究表明,随着一产GDP及有效灌溉面积的增加,能有效缓解旱灾的灾情;聚类分析表明在南北样带上存在六大自然和人文条件组合区。
Abstract:
Based on the database of Shenzhen-Bayanhaote geographic transect, the impact of variability of rain and temperature on meteorologic disasters as well as the impact of human factors on drought are analyzed with Pearson correlation for the transect.To analyze the impact of different combination of natural and human factors on disaster losses, the paper analyzes 137 counties in the transect with hierarchical cluster analysis.The results show that (1) the regional diversity of disasters is evident.Meteorologic disasters mainly consist of flood in the southern regions and drought in the northern regions.(2) The frequency and duration of the meteorologic disasters are affected mainly by the variation of temperature and precipitation.And between them there exist obviously positive correlations.(3) Human activities have a great impact on drought, whose frequency numbers and durations are positively correlated with the ratio of first industrial GDP to total GDP.(4) With the increase of first industrial GDP and available irrigated area, drought losses can be reduced.(5) There are six regions in the transect which are different from each other in terms of natural and human conditions.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2007-11-20;改回日期:2007-12-28。
基金项目:国家杰出青年科学基金项目(40425008)
作者简介:周美琴(1987- ),女,硕士研究生,主要从事自然灾害与风险研究.
通讯作者:史培军,男,教授.E-mail:spj@bnu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01