[1]王正旺,庞转棠,姚彩霞,等.长治市冰雹气候特征及预报研究[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(02):034-39.
 WANG Zheng-wang,PANG Zhuan-tang,YAO Cai-xia,et al.Study on characteristic and forecast of hail climate in Changzhi City[J].,2007,16(02):034-39.
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长治市冰雹气候特征及预报研究
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《自然灾害学报》[ISSN:/CN:23-1324/X]

卷:
16
期数:
2007年02期
页码:
034-39
栏目:
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on characteristic and forecast of hail climate in Changzhi City
作者:
王正旺1 庞转棠1 姚彩霞2 李拽英2
1. 长治市气象局, 山西长治046000;
2. 山西省气象局, 山西太原030002
Author(s):
WANG Zheng-wang1 PANG Zhuan-tang1 YAO Cai-xia2 LI Zhuai-ying2
1. Changzhi Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Changzhi 046000, China;
2. Shanxi Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan 030002, China
关键词:
冰雹气候特征天气形势预报参数预报模型
Keywords:
hailclimate characteristicweather situationforecast parameterforecast model
分类号:
P458.1+21.2
摘要:
对1980-2003年长治市冰雹天气的气候背景进行了统计分析,明确了冰雹发生的时空尺度,地理分布,月、年际变化,冰雹发源地以及冰雹主要影响路径;利用500 hPa天气图,给出了降雹的天气形势及高空冷空气的活动路径;分析了冰雹天气的0℃层高度、-20℃层高度、水汽条件和稳定度等参数;采用最优子集回归方法对850 hPa和500 hPa高空指标站进行了选取,分析了这些站点及本站14时(压、温、湿、风)的气象要素,建立了综合性预报模型。
Abstract:
This paper statistically analyzes climatic background of hail weather in Changzhi City during 1980-2003,clarifies hail’s spatiotemporal dimension,geographic distribution,yearly and monthly change and source,and its main influencing route.Using the synoptic chart of 500 hPa,the weather situation of hailfall and the moving path of cold air in high altitude are presented.The height of layers with 0℃ and 20℃ temperature,the water vapor condition and the stability for hail weather are analyzed.The stations for 850 hPa and 500 hP a high altitude indices are chosen with optmial subset regressive technology.Meteorological factors such as air pressure,temperature,humidity and wind at 14:00 from these stations and from Changzhi Station are analyzed and an integrated forecast model is established.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2005-10-10;改回日期:2006-4-5。
基金项目:长治市星火科技项目([2006]27)
作者简介:王正旺(1956- ),男,高级工程师,主要从事天气预报分析研究.E-mail:wzwpz@tsohu.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01